Twins Post-Season Plans A, B & C

• Sign Santana to a 6-yr, $120 million extension – that’s actually less than what he’ll get, and even though that’s very long for a pitcher, he’s been injury free throughout his career
• Trade for Miguel Tejada by giving Jason Bartlett, Anthony Swarzak and Zach Ward.  The Orioles are looking for a young SS in place of Tejada.  The Twins can easily afford Tejada next year and that upgrades the middle of their lineup for the next two years
• Trade for Coco Crisp by giving Juan Rincon and Jeff Manship.  The Red Sox will want bullpen help and top level talent.
• Sign Mike Piazza to a 1-yr, $4 million deal – seems to be about what he should demand to be a DH and emergency catcher.
• Sign Morgan Ensberg to a 1-yr, $3 million deal – he takes walks and has power and San Diego has no need for him.  You may have to be patient, but he could be a steal
• Sign Craig Monroe to a 1-yr, $1.5 million deal – to be a backup and play LF against tough lefties.

That gives you a lineup of: Crisp, Mauer, Tejada, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Piazza, Ensberg, Casilla with Redmond, Punto, Tyner, Monroe and Buscher as backups.  It gives you a rotation of: Santana, Liriano, Garza, Baker, Slowey with Bonser to start in the rotation until Liriano is ready.  The bullpen is Nathan, Neshek, Guerrier, Crain, Reyes, Perkins and Cali or Bonser.

I believe that team could compete for the division and fare well in the playoffs.  If we’re going to hold on to Santana, this is the way to go because he’d be our only long-term contract.  The cost of this team is $78.35 million which is about 6-7 million more than last year.

PLAN B – Trade Santana and Rebuild

• Trade Santana to Los Angeles Dodgers for Andy LaRoche, Matt Kemp and James McDonald.  We need a long-term 3B and CF solution and we have the solution with this trade.  McDonald can be traded off to another team for another piece.  If possible, I’d like to trade Santana off to a National League team.
• Trade Joe Nathan to Arizona for Carlos Quentin and Dustin Nippert.  This allows the Diamondbacks to part with Valverde for a starting pitcher and gives the Twins another solution in the OF.
• Trade Juan Rincon to Houston for Luke Scott.  The Astros don’t really seem to be interested in giving Scott a chance and although he’s a little old for a prospect, he’s always hit. 

That gives you a lineup of: Casilla (who must play every day to see if he’s any good), Mauer, Kemp, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Quentin, LaRoche, Bartlett with Scott, Tyner, Punto, Redmond and Buscher as backups.  That’s not that bad of a lineup with plenty of upside for 2009.  Your rotation is Liriano, Garza, Baker, Slowey, Bonser with Blackburn, Duensing and McDonald around for backup.  Your bullpen becomes Neshek, Guerrier, Crain, Reyes, Perkins, Cali/Korecky and Blackburn or Duensing as the long man.

I believe this team would actually be okay and we’d have a really strong foundation for 2009 and 2010 as Cuddyer would be our only possible loss by 2010 and Quentin or Scott could take over for him by then.  We have two very strong relievers in Delaney and Morlan coming up who could be future closers if Neshek doesn’t take well to the role.

PLAN C – What Will Happen

• Sign Tony Clark to a 2-year, $6 million deal
• Sign Craig Monroe to a 1-year, $2 million deal
• Sign Kenny Lofton to a 1-year, $5 million deal

In this scenario we neither trade nor extend Santana or Nathan.  We sign only these short-term deals and leave ourselves with Buscher and Macri as starters at 3B.  So the lineup would be: Lofton, Bartlett, Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, Monroe/Clark, Kubel, Buscher/Macri, Punto/Casilla.  I don’t mind Lofton because he gets on base, but this just isn’t a top quality lineup.  Our rotation would be the same as plan A with Rincon in the bullpen instead of Perkins.  Our pitching would be solid, but due to the lack of hitting we’d be looking at about a .500 team.

There are probably dozens of different trade scenarios that would work out for Santana – sending him to visit his pal Hunter with the Angels for Kendrick, Wood and Willits would be a nice deal.  The current rumor of Santana to the Yanks for Hughes, Cabrera and Austin Jackson is pretty solid as I’d love to have Hughes.  I’m not sold on Cabrera and I haven’t heard much about Jackson other than he’s toolsy and had a good second half of the year at high-A.  We’ll have to see what happens.